Horiens presents an innovative model of agricultural risk transfer with high adherence to the reality of the field

Check out the case presented by the company at the 6th edition of CNMA

With more than a decade of experience in risk management and insurance for the agribusiness, Horiens accepted the challenge launched by Atvos, its client in the sucroenergetic sector, to develop an agroclimatic risk analysis methodology that would be adherent to the reality of the field and propose an innovative solution that could transfer these risks in a simple and transparent way to the insurance companies.

In partnership with Agrymet, a technology company specialized in agrometeorology, Horiens developed a Proof of Concept (POC) in two units of Atvos, located in Alto Taquari (MT) and Costa Rica (MS).

During the POC, the companies adjusted and validated probabilistic models that correlate agroclimatic factors (plant, climate, and soil), from a database of over 40 years of Agrymet, to arrive at the estimated yields. These yields estimated by the models were compared with the actual yields observed in each unit during 10 crop years, proving the adherence of the models.

The methodology created by the companies makes it possible to exit a deterministic model of crop simulation and migrate to a probabilistic model, which looks into the future as accurately as possible. Agrymet’s Agrymax data platform and the data science work performed at Horiens’ Risk Labs were the means used to create the methodology.

The work, in addition to being used in agricultural planning, is the basis for the creation of parametric insurance products with high adherence that are in the final stages of development to add efficiency to the risk transfer and claims regulation processes.

Rogério do Nascimento,
Corporate Manager of Technology and Agricultural Operation at Atvos

“We issued the challenge to Horiens, and the results were amazing. The methodology, with a scientific and practical basis, has a lot of applicability because we can better manage what is forecasted for the next harvest. We will also have better conditions to clearly evaluate the risk we are taking and what part of it we are transferring, not to mention that in the case of parametric insurance, the definition of climatic parameters as triggers should change the scenario of claims regulations, a process that is often complex and slow.

Ingrid Gregorio
Risk and Insurance Manager at Horiens

“Together with Agrymet, we are turning the climate into an ally of agricultural planning and agroclimatic risk management. The methodology we created is innovative in the market because of the richness of the database we use, Agrymax, added to the work of data science and probabilistic modeling tailored to each production, in addition to the deep knowledge of the risk and insurance market.

Bárbara Sentelhas
CEO of Agrymet

“We were able to transform models that were deterministic into probabilistic models, capable of bringing actual expected productivity curves for the next harvest. Thus, it is possible to have access to the list of expected yields and with what probability they will occur. We are also developing a parametric insurance product in which the parameters used can be the yields themselves predicted by the model or the climatic factors that have the greatest impact on that specific plantation. The insurance will be 100% customizable, bringing more assertiveness to a dynamic that is historically unstable.” 

More information at: gestaoderiscoagro.com.br